The EU’s debate over its 2035 and 2040 emission targets creates uncertainty, but stricter climate policies remain inevitable. For Turkey, this means both export risks and opportunities for green growth through effective carbon management.
The European Union (EU) has long sought to maintain its global leadership in climate policy. Through the European Green Deal and the EU Climate Law, the EU has committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2030. However, it is increasingly emphasized that this roadmap should not consist solely of 2030 and 2050 targets. For this reason, new interim targets for 2035 and 2040 are at the center of the EU’s climate strategy.
In recent weeks, however, significant disagreements have emerged within the EU over these interim targets. Some countries fear high costs and social pressure, while frontrunner states argue that climate neutrality is only possible through rapid steps. These debates pose the risk that the EU may not be able to present updated targets at COP30 in Brazil at the end of 2025. Such a delay would not only undermine the EU’s global leadership role but also create uncertainty for its trading partners.
EU climate policy is based on the principle of “burden-sharing”. Countries with stronger economic capacity and energy profiles are expected to contribute more, while those dependent on fossil fuels are expected to contribute less. This situation creates tension, particularly between Eastern and Western European countries.
Countries such as Poland and Hungary demand a slower transition due to their fossil fuel dependence.
Germany, France, and the Nordic countries, on the other hand, are pushing for more ambitious targets thanks to investments in renewables.
These differences slow down decision-making processes and make it difficult for the EU to establish a common position.
The slowness of EU decision-making mechanisms can also cause fluctuations in carbon markets. For example, there is a risk that prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) may become unstable due to uncertainty about targets.
The period between 2030 and 2050 is a critical “bridge phase” for achieving climate neutrality. Without strong interim targets for 2035 and 2040, the risk of deviating from the 2050 net-zero pathway increases.
These interim targets not only deliver environmental benefits but also create predictability and investment security. Long-term investments in energy, industry, transport, and agriculture will be shaped by these targets. Uncertainty, however, undermines corporate decision-making and erodes the confidence of international investors.
Turkey is one of the EU’s closest trading partners. Approximately 40–50% of exports are directed to the EU, and a significant portion of these come from high carbon-intensive sectors such as:
Steel and cement
Aluminium
Fertilizers and chemicals
Electricity trade
These sectors will be directly affected by the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Turkish exporters will be required to report the embedded carbon in their products and bear the associated costs.
Possible delays in the EU’s new targets may give Turkish companies short-term flexibility. However, it is clear that stricter climate policies are inevitable in the long run. Therefore, it is crucial for Turkey to follow a parallel path to the EU with the Climate Law adopted in 2025 and the planned Emissions Trading System (ETS).
The message for Turkish companies is clear:
Carbon management is no longer optional but a necessity.
Companies that adapt early will gain both cost and competitive advantages.
With digital solutions (e.g. CO2 Manager), emission measurement and reporting processes become transparent, standard-compliant, and verifiable.
The green transformation is critical not only for CBAM compliance but also for access to green finance. International investors increasingly turn to companies that have reduced their carbon risks.
The uncertainty surrounding the EU’s 2035 and 2040 targets is not just a political debate in Brussels. These developments are of direct strategic importance for Turkey’s industry and exports. While delays may bring short-term opportunities, the tightening of climate policies is inevitable.
Turkey’s new Climate Law, ETS preparations, and 2053 net-zero target open both responsibilities and opportunities for the business world. Companies that seize this opportunity will not only secure their competitiveness in the EU market but also contribute to the global fight against climate change.
Source:
Reuters (2025). EU set to miss UN climate deadline amid internal divisions.